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See where North American inventories are going with Genscape's new crude oil balance forecast

Get a fundamental view of the market to help inform your price forecasts

Genscape's North American Crude Oil Balance Forecast provides a three-year outlook at the supply and demand balances in the U.S. and Canada. This report utilizes Genscape's proprietary monitors, crude oil production forecasts, and a new refinery crude oil demand forecast in order to forecast crude oil inventories for North America.

Regional year-over-year balance summary


Delivery: Emailed PDF & Data File

Frequency: Every 6 Weeks & Weekly Updates

Locations: North America

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Get Genscape's Balance Forecast for 2016 through 2018

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Features of the North American Crude Oil Balance Forecast:

  • A three-year forward-looking view on crude oil inventories by PADD based on forecasted movements between PADDs and how much crude will be pulled out of inventory by refineries
  • Incorporates Genscape's crude oil production forecast by quality and region
  • Forecasts for global and Canadian imported crude volumes and qualities for relevant U.S. regions based off monthly customs data (also considering global and U.S. imports for Canada)
  • Estimates of refinery demand for crude oil that consider refinery turnarounds and upsets
  • Refining crack spreads between different regions using available market pricing from NYMEX to give an idea of refining margins by region
  • Refined product output forecasts
  • Weekly updates to the balance forecast driven by new weekly data for oil production informed by Spring Rock’s price-to-rig forecast, crude runs, imports, inventories, pipeline flows, and utilization rates
Understand Genscape's expectations for U.S. & Canadian Crude Oil Production & Rig Counts in 2016

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Benefits of the North American Crude Oil Balance Forecast:

  • Regional Refinery DemandGain a comprehensive view of North American supply, movements, imports, inventories, refinery demand, and refined product output with synthesized data from multiple sources (EIA, Statistics Canada, NEB, Genscape proprietary, NYMEX, etc.)
  • Understand movements between North American regions and capacity constraints for major trunklines between regions using regional crude pricing differentials, transportation costs, and proprietary pipeline flow data
  • Leverage Genscape’s proprietary refinery monitoring data to estimate weekly refinery utilization rates a week ahead of EIA’s weekly release on utilization data
  • Arrive at an ending quality estimate of the crude available to run through a PADD’s refineries using a model that reconciles crude movements between PADD regions
Understand Genscape's expectations for U.S. & Canadian Crude Oil Production & Rig Counts in 2016